On 5 July 2024, Samoa will face Italy in an international friendly match at Apia Park, Apia. This encounter promises to be a thrilling spectacle, offering insights into how both teams have developed since their last face-off.
Match Details
Date/Time:
Australia: 3 pm AEST, Friday, 5 July 2024
UK: 6 am, Friday, 5 July 2024
US ET: 1 am, Friday, 5 July 2024
US PT: 10 pm, Thursday, 4 July 2024
Venue: Apia Park, Samoa
Team Form and Recent Performances
Samoa: Samoa enters this match amidst a transitional phase. The team has had mixed results recently, with their last five matches ending in three losses, one win, and one loss (LLLWL). The 2023 World Cup was particularly challenging for Samoa, where they failed to advance past the group stage. Under the guidance of new head coach Mase Mahonri, Samoa aims to rejuvenate their performance. The inclusion of eight players from the Moana Pasifika franchise is expected to bring cohesion and quality to the team.
Italy: Italy, on the other hand, has been on an upward trajectory. Their performance in the Six Nations was impressive, with victories over Scotland and Wales, and a draw with France. Their recent form reads as WWDLL, indicating a solid performance streak. The Italian squad retains most of the players from their successful Six Nations campaign, ensuring stability and continuity. The debut of Matt Gallagher at fullback adds an element of excitement to the team.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Total Matches Played: 7
Draws: 0
Wins:
Italy: 2
Samoa: 5
Win Percentage:
Italy: 29%
Samoa: 71%
Biggest Winning Margin:
Italy: 18 points
Samoa: 29 points
These statistics highlight Samoa's historical dominance in their encounters with Italy. However, Italy's recent improvements suggest that this upcoming match could defy historical trends.
Recent Predictions and Betting Odds
Forebet predicts a close match with Samoa potentially winning 25-13, leveraging their home advantage and the motivation brought by the new coaching regime​ (MathFootPred)​. Conversely, Betting Expert anticipates a repeat of Italy's past dominance, forecasting a 49-17 victory for Italy, citing their superior form and historical performance against Samoa​ (www.bettingexpert.com)​.
Win Probability:
Samoa: 18.34%
Italy: 80.50%
Key Factors and Insights
Samoa:
Home Advantage: Playing on home soil provides a significant edge and boosts morale.
New Coaching: The introduction of Mase Mahonri as head coach brings new strategies and enthusiasm.
Player Cohesion: The integration of Moana Pasifika players aims to enhance team performance.
Italy:
Recent Form: Italy's strong performance in the Six Nations gives them confidence.
Squad Continuity: Retaining most of the successful Six Nations squad ensures stability.
Historical Performance: Italy's historical success against Samoa, including a significant win in their last encounter, provides psychological advantage.
Summary
The upcoming match at Apia Park is set to be a highly entertaining clash. Samoa, playing at home under a new coach, will be eager to overturn their recent misfortunes and start a new chapter with a victory. However, Italy's recent form and historical dominance suggest they will be a formidable opponent. Rugby fans can expect a thrilling match as both teams strive to make a statement on the international stage.
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